中文摘要：

采用韦伯-费希纳定律确定指标评价标准,通过D-S证据合成理论将主客观权重相结合确定综合权重,应用信息扩散技术确定小样本情况下样本指标值在指标评价域上的信息分配,进而确定隶属度,在此基础上利用模糊综合评判方法对环渤海17个沿海城市的海域承载力进行评价,并运用自然断裂法进行空间表达。研究结果表明,2000-2011年,环渤海地区海域承载力虽有波动,但总体上呈上升趋势,各地海域承载力不断提高,但级别特征值都在1.8-4.0之间,整体水平不高;区域空间分异明显,空间峰值效应显著。

英文摘要：

The ocean is an important strategic resource in coastal countries and regions. The coastal area has the largest population, the biggest population density, and is the most developed area in China as in other coastal countries. Bohai Sea Ring Area and the Changjiang River Delta, Zhujiang River Delta are the three economic growth poles in China coastal area. With the great growth of economy and society, the contradiction between supply and demand of land resources has become increasingly prominent, marine resources have been predatory exploited, marine environment has been seriously polluted. Carrying capacity is an important study on coordinating development of resources, environment, and economy. Marine carrying capacity is generally be defined as the capacity or limit of the harmonious development of population, environment, and socio-economic that the ocean can carry in a certain period without damaging the sustainable development of marine resource and environment, and ensuring a certain living standard. Marine carrying capacity assessment is of great significance for the sustainable exploitation of marine resources, the environment protection and the coordinated development of regional economy and society in coastal areas. In this context, evaluation on carrying capacity of Bohai Sea Ring Area is of great significance to the sustainable development of the Bohai Sea economic circle. Since marine resources system has mobility, renewability and other characteristics, marine carrying capacity has openness, dynamics and complexity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the population, environment and socio-economic development or limits that marine carrying capacity can support. But by constructing indicator system, we can measure the dynamic change trend and relative marine carrying capacity then guide the development of marine economic activities. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is based on the fuzzy mathematics principle, to analyze and evaluate the situation of the membership level of things to be j