中文摘要：

暴雨洪涝灾害人口风险评估是一项复杂系统工程,在防洪减灾工程理论与实践中具有重要意义.针对灾害管理需要掌握暴雨洪涝人口灾情动态变化的问题,采用智能体建模（Agent-Based Modeling,ABM）构建了暴雨洪涝人口风险模拟模型.在Netlogo平台上,利用智能体仿真（Agent-Based Simulation,ABS）和构建的模型对淮河流域的暴雨洪涝人口风险动态变化进行仿真.仿真结果表明本文的方法能对暴雨的轻度、中度和重度三种人口风险进行动态分析.研究结果表明基于多智能体的模拟仿真能评估暴雨洪涝全过程的人口风险动态变化.

英文摘要：

As a complex system engineering, population risk assessment for rainstorm flood disaster has a very important significance on the theory and practice of flood control. Targeting on the problem that dynamic changes of population risk for rainstorm flood should be obtained by disaster management, this paper constructs population risk assessment model for rainstorm flood by using agent-based modeling （ABM） method. On NetLogo platform, agent-based simulation （ABS） and the constructed model are employed to simulate the population risk changes for rainstorm of the Huaihe River Basin. The simulation results show that the proposed model can dynamically analyze population risk under low-risk status, medium-risk status and high-risk status. The experimental results demonstrate that the dynamic changes of population risk in the whole process of rainstorm flood could be solved by using ABM and ABS.