中文摘要：

为克服导水裂缝带高度计算经验公式中仅考虑煤层顶板岩性和开采厚度所带来的误差，综合分析开采深度、煤层倾角、开采厚度、走向长度、倾斜长度、顶板岩性等变量的影响，运用偏最小二乘回归法提取对自变量、因变量有强解释能力的主成分，建立了因变量与自变量间的回归公式。根据淮南矿区走向长壁垮落式采煤中导水裂缝带高度实测资料，基于偏最小二乘回归法建立导水裂缝带高度预测模型，经辅助分析检验表明该模型预测精度较高，可以作为淮南矿区相似条件下导水裂缝带高度的计算公式。

英文摘要：

To overcome the calculation errors of the development height of the water flowing fractured zone caused by the empirical formula in which the coal roof lithologic character and mining thickness were only taken into consideration, comprehensive analysis was made on the influence of the varables such as the mining depth, the coal seam pitch, the mining thickness, the length in strike and inclination and the roof lithologic character, the partial least squares regression method was applied for extracting the principal components which had strong interpreting ability to the independent variable and dependent variable, and the regression formula between the independent variable and dependent variable was established. Based on the measured data of the development height of the water flowing fractured zone in longwall caving mining along the strike in Huainan Coal Mining Area, a prediction model for the height of the water flowing fractured zone was built by using the partial least squares regression method. Auxiliary analysis and test showed that this model had high prediction accuracy and can be used as the calculation formula of the development height of the water flowing fractured zone under the similar condition in Huainan Coal Mining Area.