中文摘要：

运用VAR模型实证分析了经济增长、通货膨胀和净出口（国际收支）对人民升值的影响。结果显示经济增长对人民币升值起到促进作用，通货膨胀对人民币升值起阻碍作用，对净出口而言，净出口额越大，说明在国际贸易中处于顺差，国际收支也为正，进而国际储备增加，升值压力亦加大。在人民币升值的速度方面，货币当局认为应与我国的实际经济发展情况相适应。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzes the impact of economic growth,inflation and net exports（ BoP）on RMB’s appreciation. The results showed that economic growth played a role in promoting RMB appreciation;inflation impede the appreciation of the RMB;for net exports,the larger net exports means the RMB in international trade is in surplus, the balance of payments is also positive,and thus the international reserves and appreciation pressure also increased. In terms of the speed of RMB appreciation,the monetary authorities think that the speed of RMB appreciation should adapt the actual situation of China’s economic development.