本文以WTO数据库中的贸易数据测算了近年来我国制造业产品的出口竞争力指数,结果显示:2011年之前我国制造业产品总体的出口竞争力不断上升,而2012年后有所下降。本文同时以历年中国劳动统计年鉴和中国工业经济统计年鉴中的数据计算了近年来我国制造业的单位劳动力成本,计算结果为:2011年之前虽然工资不断上涨,但劳动生产率增长更快,因此单位劳动力成本在2011年之前处于不断下降阶段;但2012年后情况出现变化,单位劳动力成本小幅上升。我国制造业产品出口竞争力的变动与制造业单位劳动力成本变动的时间节点一致。实证分析的结果表明:单位劳动力成本的两个因素(工资和劳动生产率)对我国制造业的出口竞争力有明显影响,但劳动力成本的变动对制造业分类产品出口竞争力的影响有所不同。本文最后给出了应对劳动力成本上升的三种思路。
This paper estimates the export competitiveness index of China's manufacturing based on WTO database.The results show that the competitiveness had been increasing until 2011 and declines after 2012.This paper also calculates the unit labor cost of China's manufacturing based on the data of China Labor Statistical Yearbook and China Industrial Economy Statistical Yearbook.The results are: before 2011, the labor productivity growth was faster than wage, So the unit labor costs wasin the decline stage;After 2012 the situation changes, the unit labor costs rose slightly.The changes in the export competitiveness are highly related to the changes in labor costs in manufacturing units.The results of empirical analysis show that the two factors(wage and labor productivity) of unit labor cost have obvious influence on the export competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry, but the impact of labor cost changes is different on specificmanufacturing products.In the end of this paper, we give three ideas on how to deal with the rising labor cost.