中文摘要：

当前劳动力成本的上升会重构中国制造业内部各行业的相对竞争力,使制造业出口的结构发生变动。构建两部门模型分析了其中的机理：当前低技能劳动力工资的较快上涨,虽然能推动低技能劳动力密集型行业劳动生产率的增长,但依旧会促使要素从低技能劳动力密集型行业转移到高技能劳动力密集型行业。从2003—2014年制造业分行业数据中总结出的经验事实佐证了理论模型的推论：这期间的高技能劳动力密集型行业（而非资本密集型行业）的出口份额在增加。面板数据模型的回归结果表明：一个行业的工资增长对出口份额有显著的负面作用;对于工资增长较快的行业,虽然劳动生产率也增长得比较快,但出口份额的下降并不因此而改变。在劳动力成本上升的背景下,应推进制造业的转型,实现结构优化。

英文摘要：

The current increase in labor costs will reorganize the relative competitiveness of various industries within China＇s manufacturing industry,and change the structure of manufacturing exports. The two-sector model is employed to analyze its mechanism. The rapid rise in low-skilled labor wages,while driving the growth of labor productivity in low-skilled laborintensive industries,will continue to promote the transfer of production factors from low-skilled labor-intensive industries to high-skilled labor-intensive industry. The empirical facts summarized from the data of manufacturing industries from 2003 to2014 approve the theoretical model＇s inference： the share of exports of highly skilled labor-intensive industries（ rather than capital-intensive industries） was increasing during this period. The regression results of the panel data model show that wage growth of an industry has a significant negative impact on its share of exports. The share of exports of an industry with faster wage growth is still falling,in spite of faster labor productivity growth. In the context of rising labor costs,we should promote the transformation of manufacturing and achieve structural optimization.