自2007年以来,中国的劳动生产率呈现出增长放缓的趋势。本文建立了包含劳动力市场扭曲和部门效率差异的三部门一般均衡模型,对劳动生产率增长放缓的原因进行了分析。本文的模型可以较好地拟合劳动力部门间再配置和劳动生产率增长放缓的特征事实。数值模拟结果表明,第三产业劳动生产率低速增长是导致中国总劳动生产率增长放缓的主要原因,而劳动力市场扭曲的减弱和第一产业劳动生产率的加速增长则对总劳动生产率增长放缓起到了遏制作用。这些结果证明,劳动生产率的增长放缓在很大程度上是产业结构变迁带来的。政府可以实施放松服务业进入规制和消除劳动力市场扭曲等政策,提高总劳动生产率的增长率。
After a long period of rapid economic growth,the growth rate of labor productivity began to decline in China since 2007.In this paper,we develop a three-sector neoclassical model of structural transformation and use the model to assess the driving forces of China's productivity growth slowdown.We find that the low productivity growth rate in services is the most important force driving the Chinese productivity growth slowdown.In contrast,the productivity growth in agriculture and the weakening labor market distortions are conductive to China's aggregate productivity growth.To the extent that the service sector constitutes a large and increasing share of the economy,a slowdown in aggregate productivity growth would be inevitable.