中文摘要：

目前,我国的上市公司管理层盈余预测执行的是独特的半强制半自愿并存的披露监管制度。基于这一独特的制度背景,以A股上市公司为研究对象,利用内部控制评价指数,可就内部控制对上市公司管理层盈余预测的披露行为进行研究。研究发现,内部控制对上市公司管理层盈余预测的自愿披露行为有显著影响。上市公司的内部控制质量越好,公司管理层越倾向于自愿披露盈余预测。作为上市公司的内部控制五要素机制,公司内部良好的信息沟通水平与控制活动水平使得管理层具有更好的盈余预测能力,而公司良好的内部环境和内部监督会增强管理层披露盈余预测的意愿,促使其自愿披露盈余预测。

英文摘要：

China management earnings forecast regime is based on the semi-mandatory and semi-voluntary regulation.In light of the current disclosure system for management earnings forecast,using the internal control evaluation index issued by the internal control group of Xiamen University and the sample of all A-share listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2012,this paper investigates the influence that internal control exerts on the behavior of management earnings forecast. Empirical study results show that internal control has significant effects on voluntary disclosure of management earnings forecast. The better quality of the internal control,the more inclined to voluntary disclosure of management earnings forecast. As part of the five elements of internal control,good information communication and control activities inside companies endow management with a better ability for earnings forecast. The high-grade internal environment and internal oversight enhance management＇s willingness to disclose earnings forecasts and eventually lead to voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast.