中文摘要：

在人口预测以及对主要制度参数变动进行合理假设的基础上,本文按照＂名义全账户＂模式,对现行退休年龄和两个延迟退休方案条件下2015-2050年企业职工基本养老保险收支进行预测。研究结果显示,在＂名义全账户＂模式下,测算区间内城镇企业职工社会养老保险在部分或全部年份存在基金收支缺口,按照3%利率水平计算的各年基金收支结余之和2015年现值均为负值,＂名义全账户＂模式并不能完全解决养老保险基金收支缺口问题,城镇企业职工社会养老保险需要额外的资金补充才能实现基金收支平衡。

英文摘要：

Based on the population prediction and reasonable hypothesis of major parameters,this thesis predicts the funds balance of China’s basic pension for urban enterprise employees according to the ‘Full NDC ’mode. The result shows that there would be pension funds deficit in the calculating period under‘Full NDC’mode,and that the present value on 2015 of funds balances under all hypotheses are negative,which means that the‘Full NDC’mode can’t completely solve the gap between income and expenditure of pension fund.