中文摘要：

基于我国目前果蔬生产的现状,建立了可用于果蔬消费量预测的灰色模型,并以2003-2009年苹果和菠菜的消费量为基础数据,并预测了2015-2020年我国16种主要果蔬的消费量,分析了不同种类果蔬消费量未来6年的发展趋势。预测结果为指导我国果蔬生产提供了有价值的数据参考,同时,可为决策者和相关机构制定政策性建议和方案时,提供了理论模型和借鉴资料。

英文摘要：

Based on the current situation of Chinese fruit and vegetable production, the gray model which can be used to predict the consumption of fruit and vegetable was established. The detailed steps of ＂gray model＂ was decuced, based on the consumption data of apple and spinach from 2003 to 2009. Accordingly, predicted from 2015 to 2020, consumption of16 major fruit and vegetable, and analyzed the different types of fruit and vegetable consumption in the development trend of the next six years. The institute of fruit and vegetable production work as a guide provides valuable data for reference. At the same time, formulating policy recommendations and solutions for decision makers and relevant organizations provide s a theoretical model and reference materials.