中文摘要：

针对电力系统中不确定因素对系统小干扰稳定性的影响,提出了基于可信性理论的小干扰稳定性分析方法,对系统的小干扰稳定性进行模糊模拟分析。该方法不仅能够计算考虑不确定因素时系统特征值的期望值和方差,而且能够计算可信性意义下的小干扰稳定指标。该方法的特点在于避免了不确定参数分布函数类型的假设和参数统计,且对不确定参数之间的独立性不作要求,仅需根据实际情况确定不确定参数的变化范围且描述不确定参数的隶属度函数类型对计算结果基本无影响。仿真算例的计算结果验证了所述方法的有效性,通过与确定性分析方法、概率分析方法和蒙特卡洛仿真法的结果进行对比,证明了该方法在计算精度和计算量方面的优越性。

英文摘要：

Many uncertainties of power system parameters such as loads, generations and network parameters will affect power system small signal stability analysis. A credibility theory based method is proposed to consider these uncertainties for small signal stability assessment. The method can be used to calculate the expectations and variances of eigenvalues of differential-algebraic equations. It can also be used to calculate the small signal stability indices based on credibility theory. The results provide useful information for system operation and planning decision-making. The credibility theory method avoids hypothesis of the uncertain parameters distributed function’s type and the function parameters’ statistics, and does not require independence of uncertain parameters. The membership function of uncertain parameters is required, but it has no influence on the result. Compared with deterministic analysis method, two point method and Monte Carlo simulation method, case studies verify its feasibility and applicability for power system small signal stability assessment.