中文摘要：

城市化水平是衡量一个区域社会经济发展程度的重要标志,而耕地保护是一个区域社会经济可持续发展的重要保障。正确处理城市化发展与耕地保护的关系,对于城市健康发展和合理利用土地资源具有重要意义。以1996~2012年芜湖市数据为基础,运用单因素线性回归模型,通过国内生产总值、固定资产投资和人口城市化率3个主要指标,分析芜湖市1996~2012年城市化发展与耕地数量变化之间的关系,探寻影响耕地变化的主导因素,预测未来短期内耕地数量变化趋势,从而有针对地提出耕地保护的有效对策。研究结果表明,自1996年以来,芜湖市处于城市化加速发展阶段,耕地数量变化显著,且与国内生产总值、固定资产投资和人口城市化率之间皆存在密切关系。为避免耕地资源的进一步减少,保障社会经济可持续发展,芜湖市应通过节约集约用地、积极开发耕地后备资源、加强耕地质量管护等方式进行耕地保护。

英文摘要：

Urbanization is the inevitable stage of human society development,and the level of urbanization is an important sign to measure the development degree. Urbanization results show the rise in the number of cities and the expansion of cities,improvement of the level of urbanization is bound to occupy a large number of cultivated lands. So,cultivated land protection is an important guarantee for social and economic sustainable development. Correctly handling the relationship between the development of urbanization and cultivated land protection is great importance to rational utilization of land and the allocation of land resources. On the basis of Wuhu data 1996-2002,using the single factor linear regression model and 3 indicators,i. e.,gross domestic product,fixed assets investment and population urbanization rate,this paper analyzed the relationship between urbanization development and cultivated land quantity change of Wuhu City from 1996 to 2012,explored the dominant factors affecting cultivated land change,predicted the future trend of cultivated land quantity change in the short term,and put forward some effective countermeasures of cultivated land protection. The results showed there was a close relationship between cultivated land quantity and gross domestic product,investment in fixed assets and population urbanization rate. Since the year of1996,Wuhu City was in the stage of accelerated development of urbanization when the cultivated land quantity changed significantly and industry was the main economic growth point. So in the future,gross domestic product and fixed asset investment would be the main factors reducing cultivated land. In order to avoid further reducing the cultivated land resources and ensure social and economic sustainable development,cultivated land should be protected by conserving lands and exploiting reserve cultivated land resources. It suggested that Wuhu government should establish new development concept to improve the quality of urban development,innovate land use system,promote t