以人均粮食占有量为研究指标,以河南省126个县(市)为研究单元,通过空间自相关、重心移动、空间计量经济模型分析1990-2012年河南省人均粮食占有量的空间格局及其驱动机制。结果表明:河南省县域人均粮食占有量的空间分布存在一定的关联性,豫北中部、驻马店与信阳交汇处的东部地区形成人均粮食占有量高的集聚区域,豫西、豫西南山区形成人均粮食占有量低的集聚区域,并且随着时间推移,这种趋势不断加强;河南省粮食生产呈现不均衡分布,人均粮食占有量重心向东南方向移动。最后,通过空间计量经济模型SLM和SEM分析,结果得出,人均粮食生产空间格局与人均耕地面积、种植结构、历史发展基础呈显著正相关,与经济水平呈显著负相关。
Based on the statistical data of 126 counties in Henan Province, describes the spatial pattern and driving mechanism of per capita grain possession of Henan since the 1990s through the related analysis of spatial autocorrelation analysis, gravity center model and spatial econometric model. The results show that: First, there is certain spatial relevance on per capita grain possession in Henan. The similar areas cluter in space. And this trend is strengthening as time goes by. LISA cluster map demonstrates that counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in the center of north and the intersection of Zhumadian and Xinyang, while the lower per capita grain possession gathered in the west and southwest of Henan. Second, the per capita grain possession in Henan is imbalanced and the per capita grain possession gravity center moves to the southeast of Henan. Finally , the spatial distribution changing of per capita grain possession is affected positively by the per capita cultivated land, planting structure, historical development foundation, and affected negatively by the level of economic development.