中文摘要：

为了更好地分析并解决我国资源性缺水、水质性缺水或工程性缺水等问题，以需水量变化趋势预测为目标，通过建立物元模型进行了需水量的变化趋势预测．首先，以干旱区的西宁市为例进行预测，其结果显示：西宁市2010年的需水量变化趋势等级为中度用水量，而实际需水量为7．40×108m3，属于第2等级，与实际情况符合．然后，分别对义乌市、阿克苏市的需水量变化趋势进行预测，结果也较为合理．

英文摘要：

In recent years, a sustained drought shrived the north of China, northern, northwestern and north- eastern China suffered severe water shortages, resource-related, water quality-related and engineering water shortages also happened in some southern regions. To better understand and solve this problem, it was ana- lyzed and discussed from the perspective of the trend forecasts of water resource demand and to forecast the trend of water demand by establishing matter-element models. By taking Xining in the arid area as an exam- ple, according to the forecast results, the trend of water demand in Xining in 2010 would be of moderate lev- el, and the actual water demand was 7.40 × 10s m3 , which was in line with the actual situation and showed the accuracy of forecasting. For further validation, forecasts were made respectively for the water demand trend in Yiwu and Aksu, and the results showed to be also reasonable.