中文摘要：

次贷危机以后，对系统性金融风险的研究一直是理论和实务界的热点。笔者选取7个代表性指标变量，使用目前主流的金融压力指数法，对2002年2月至2015年9月我国系统性金融风险进行了研究，并首次把系统性金融风险的测度、识别和预测统一起来。笔者首先构建了我国系统性金融风险的金融压力指数和分指数，发现系统性金融风险呈现整体的周期性和市场间的传染性；其次，通过建立识别指数，认为我国系统性金融风险程度总体可控，在2008年国际金融危机爆发时和2015年“股灾”前后，有两次明显的高危时期；再次，利用ARMA模型对风险趋势进行了拟合和预测，认为2015年年底至2016年年初系统性金融风险将有所下降，回到2013年的平均水平，但在2016年5月又开始小幅上升，呈现先下降后上升的过程。最后，笔者对主要结论进行了总结并提出了有针对性的对策建议。

英文摘要：

After US subprime mortgage crisis, research on systemic financial risk has been a hot issue of theory and practice. We select 7 representative indicator variables and uses current mainstream method-finan- cial stress index, to study systemic financial risks from February 2002 to September 2015 in China. It is the first time that measurement, identification and forecasting of systemic financial risks are held together. We firstly construct financial stress index and sub-indices, and find that systemic financial risk is cyclical in all and contagious between different market. By the establishment of identification index, We further conclude that the degree of systemic financial risk is controllable and there are two high-risk periods including interna- tional financial crisis in 2008 and China＇s stock market crash in 2015. Next, by using an ARMA model, We forecast that the risk will rose after first drop： systemic financial risks will decline to the average of 2013 from late 2015 to early 2016, and then will begin to rise slightly in May 2016. Finally, main conclusions are pres- ented and several specific recommendations are put forward.