植根于我国特殊的制度与政策环境,本文全面分析了宏观经济与房地产市场和股票市场资产价格间的传导机制,厘清宏观经济对某一市场资产价格的直接影响和通过另一市场传导的间接影响或溢出效应。通过采用VAR及RVAR模型等方法,并纳入政府干预因素,研究发现:政府干预会对两个市场间的双向动态关系施加显著影响;宏观经济在两个市场的调控效果均受到制度与政策环境影响;宏观经济冲击对某一市场的直接影响和间接影响是交互动态发挥作用的,溢出效应不仅发挥着重要的传导机制作用,有时甚至占据了主导。
Rooted in China's unique institutional and policy environment, the paper comprehensively analyzes the transmissionmechanisms between macro economy, and the asset price fluctuations of China's housing market and stock market. It also clarifiesthe direct influence from macro economy on the price fluctuations of one market, and the indirect influence via another market,namely spillover effect. Employed with VAR and RVAR models and integrated government intervention factors, the resultsshown that: (1) The government intervention has significant influence on the strong dynamic relationship between China's stockmarket and housing market; (2) The institutional and policy environment significantly affects outcomes of macroeconomic controlover two markets; (3) The direct influence of macroeconomic shocks on the price fluctuations of one market and the indirectinfluence via another market operate interactively and dynamically. The spillover effect plays an important role in the transmissionmechanisms, and sometimes is even in a dominant position.