中文摘要：

基于时间序列分析方法对中国1978—2009年年度能源消费总量数据进行建模,通过验证序列的趋势特征,选择合适的拟合模型,预测了2011年和2012年中国能源消费总量.实证分析结果表明,所选模型能较为精确地预测中国能源消耗情况.

英文摘要：

Based on the method of time series analysis,the paper builds the mathematical model on yearly data of energy consumption of China from 1978 to 2009.By validating the characteristic on the time series of energy consumption and choosing the suitable model,the paper forecasts that the scale of energy consumption for 2011 and 2012 will be 3.43 and 3.55 billion tons of standard coal.By the empirical analysis,the results reveal that the model has satisfying forecast precision and will has great application value in studying the production of energy in China.