中文摘要：

信息披露的真实性会直接影响到投资者对企业债券违约风险的判断。利用信息噪声的偏倚性捕获财务报告信息中对资产价值的故意扭曲，推导了信息偏误下资产价值的条件分布、违约概率和信用价差的解析表达式。数值分析表明当资产价值遭到不同方向的扭曲时，信息噪声与违约概率会表现出不同的变动关系。实证检验表明该模型可以较为准确的刻画财务信息扭曲造成的债券违约风险和信用价差的变化规律。该模型为理解债券违约风险和财务报告信息扭曲之间的关系提供了新的启发，可以帮助债券投资者在信息披露问题比较严重的市场环境中评估违约风险。

英文摘要：

The truth of information disclosure will directly affect investors to judge the size of the default risk. This paper uses the information noise bias to capture the information distortion-deliberated on the accounting report, and derives the conditional distribution of the assets value and the analysis formulas of the default probability and the credit spread of the bond. The numerical analysis shows that noise and credit default has different correlation when assets are distorted in different direction. The empirical analysis shows that the model can describe accurately the change of default risk and credit spread to which is leaded by information distortion. The proposed model provides new enlightenment to understand the correlation between bond default risk and accounting information distortion, which can help bond investor to evaluation the credit risk in the market in which information disclosure is bad.