历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响与人类适应问题,是当前全球变化领域的研究热点之一。近年来,在利用丰富的历史文献资料研究中国历史时期(特别是过去2000年时段)气候变化与人类社会相互作用的过程机理方面取得了一系列新成果。本文将其归纳为3个方面:理论上,构建了基于粮食安全的气候影响传递过程分析框架;方法上,实现了服务于气候变化影响研究的、基于语义差异的历史社会经济序列定量重建;科学认识上,总结出"冷抑暖扬"而又福祸相依的宏观韵律。在此基础上,对未来研究需要进一步深化的方向进行了展望。
Social impacts of historical climate change and human adaptation are one of the hotspots in the current global change research. In recent years, utilizing the abundant historical literatures, new pro- gress on the interaction mechanisms and processes within the human-climate-ecosystem complex in China during the past 2000 years, has been achieved. It could be summarized as follows: Firstly, a concept model of impact and response of historical climate change in China based on food security has been built; Secondly, a series of historical social-economic series on the base of semantic differential to serve the re- search on impacts of climate change have been quantitatively reconstructed; Thirdly, the general charac- teristics of the impacts of historical climate change could be summarized as negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, with time and space differences in the impact and responses. In the future, the studies on historical climate impacts should be focused on spatial and temporal diversification, regional comprehensive analysis and comparison, and multidiscipline integration.