中文摘要：

降雨型泥石流是影响汶川地震灾区灾后重建和可持续发展的主要灾害类型，震后几年已经给灾区群众生命财产造成了巨大的损失。以白沙河流域为例，对比研究了汶川地震前后泥石流临界雨量条件，震后临界雨量比震前日雨量降低约36．0％∽48．8％，小时雨强降低约20．3∽52．2％；采用Logistic回归模型对5种雨量数据组合条件下的泥石流预测进行了研究；建立了与气象部门紧密结合的当日降雨量泥石流预报等级，对于震后泥石流预测预报研究和防灾减灾具有重要意义。

英文摘要：

Rainfall type＇ s debris flow is the main kind of disaster which impacts past-earthquake reconstruction and sustainable development of Wenchuan earthquake disaster area and has caused huge losses of life and property. Taking the Baisha River as an example, the critical daily rainfall and hour rainfall intensity after the earthquake reduced by 36.0% -48.8% and 20.3% -52.2%, respectively, compared to those before the earthquake. Then forecast of debris in five kinds of combinations of rainfall data were analyzed based on Logistic regression model. Forecast levels of debris flow were established based on daily rainfall which is passessed of a close connection with weather forecast of the meteorological department. It has a significance for forecast of debris flow and disaster prevention and mitigation after earthquake.