中文摘要：

为了控制和降低零部件的制造质量风险,在对零部件工艺过程进行分析的基础上,提出基于模糊理论的潜在失效模式及后果分析（PFEMA）方法.通过研究零部件加工过程的风险评估,构建基于生产成本的评价指标;设计评价因素集和因素水平集,并用层次分析法确定评价因素的权重,提出零部件制造工艺的风险评估模型;采用模糊评价决策,定量计算其综合评价值,进而确定其风险等级.以某型号叉车门架系统的横梁加工工艺为例进行实例验证,结果表明：改进后PFMEA方法的可行性和正确性.

英文摘要：

In order to control and reduce the risk of parts manufacturing quality, based on the analysis of the process of parts and components, the potential failure mode and effect analysis （PFEMA） method based on fuzzy theory is proposed. By studying the risk assessment of parts processing process, the evaluation index based on production cost is constructed. Designing evaluation factor set and factor level set, and the weights of the evaluation factors are determined by the analyt- ic hierarchy process, then risk assessment model of component manufacturing process is put forward. Fuzzy evaluation is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value, and then determine the risk level. Taking the cross beam manufac- turing process of a certain type of forklift truck door frame system as an example, the results show that the improved PFMEA method is feasible and correct.