中文摘要：

准确预测煤层气高产区是降低工程投资风险的重要保障。以沁水盆地樊庄区块部分煤层气垂直井的勘探开发资料为基础，根据煤层气富集的影响因素建立了煤层气富集评价指标体系，应用多层次模糊综合评价法把研究区划分为I类、Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类三种富集类型。根据构造曲率的基本原理，结合研究区资料，建立了采用构造曲率来预测渗透率的方法，并根据构造曲率与煤储层渗透率的关系识别出高渗区。运用指标法将富集区与高渗区耦合，实现了樊庄区块高产区的预测。已有生产资料表明，应用此方法进行高产区预测是可行的。

英文摘要：

Accurate prediction of high coalbed methane （CBM） production is important to reduce investment risk. Based on the data of the exploration and development from some vertical CBM wells in the Fanzhuang blocks of the Qinshui basin, the enrichment evaluation indicators system of CBM was established according to the enrichment factors of CBM, and three types of enrichment degree in the block was distinguished using multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. According to the basic principles of structunal curvature and combining with the actual data of the block, the prediction method of the coal reservoir permeability on structunal curvature was set up. Based on the correlation of the permeability to the curvature, the high permeability areas were indentified. Coupling the CBM enrichment areas to higher permeability areas using a index method, the prediction of high CBM production area in the block was achieved. The production data from the wells indicates that the prediction method of high CBM production area is reliable.