中文摘要：

利用西江年最高水位及流域气象测站的气温、降雨量资料，运用阶段性分析、M-K检测和交叉谱分析等方法，对西江年最高水位与流域气候变化的关系进行分析。结果表明：西江年最高水位、流域年平均气温和夏季降水量各序列都具有显著的阶段性特征和年代际变化特征，三个序列在1950年之前和1993年之后分别都是显著正距平，而1950-1965年及1980-1991年分别为显著负距平。流域年平均气温序列发生了显著增暖的突变，但西江年最高水位和夏季降水量突变不明显。年最高水位与年平均气温在20～40年、5．0～5．7年和2．4～2．5年周期上，与夏季降水量在10～40年、4．4～5．7年、2．9～3．6年和2．1～2．2年周期上都呈显著的同位相演变趋势。

英文摘要：

Based on the time series of annual highest water level of the Xijiang River and the precipitation and temperature data of meteorological stations in the river basin, relations between the annual highest water level and climate change in the basin were analyzed, using stage characteristics analysis, M-K abrupt change detection and cross spectrum analysis. The results indicate that all the time series of the annual highest water level, mean annual temperature and the total precipitation in summer have prominent interdecadal variations and stage characteristics, being with all significant positive anomalies before 1950 and after 1993 but with all significant negative anomalies during 1950--1965 and 1980--1991. The time series of mean annual temperature had abrupt change during the 1990s or early 2000s, but abrupt change for the other time series was not significant. The annual highest water level is closely correlated with the total precipitation in summer in both the interannual and interdecadal variation, while it is closely correlated with the mean annual temperature in the interdecadal variation. Significantly, the annual highest water level is positively correlated with both the mean annual temperature in the periods of 20 ～ 40 a, 5.0 ～ 5.7 a, and 2.4 ～ 2.5 a, and with the total precipitation in summer in the period of 10 ～ 40 a, 4.4 ～ 5.7 a, 2.9 ～ 3.6 a, and 2.1 ～ 2.2 a.