梳理了期货市场价格发现效率研究方法的发展历程,并从价格发现功能的存在性和价格发现的贡献度两个方面对我国五年期国债期货市场的价格发现效率进行了实证分析.结果显示,我国五年期国债期货市场已经具备了价格发现能力,并且MIS模型测度的价格发现贡献度达到98.27%,远远超过现货市场.结果表明,当前我国国债期货市场已经具备了较高的价格发现效率,在市场信息传递中发挥了重要作用,合约的设计基本实现了利率市场价格发现的功能.
By reviewing the research methods of the price discovery efficiency on the futures market, we make the empirical analysis on Chinese 5-year T-bond futures market on the existence and contribution degree of price discovery. The results show that Chinese T- bond futures market already has the ability of price discovery and the contribution degree of price discovery is 98.27%, far more than the spot market. It implies that Chinese T-bond futures market currently is efficiency, is playing a dominant position during the information transmission, contract design has achieved the basic functions of price discovery.