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中文摘要：
为了更准确地描述终端区排序时飞机到达定位点时间的不确定性，首先建立了飞机序列到达和离开定位点的随机模型，由于在进行延误分析时性随机模型的求解十分困难，通过将两个服从正态分布的随机变量经取最大值运算后得到的随机变量，用相应的正态分布随机变量来近似表示，得到了近似模型，从而使迭代运算得以进行。通过实例和仿真对所得近似模型进行了误差分析，验证近似模型的准确性。研究表明，近似模型可以很好地表示随机模型，从而为研究到达时间误差对飞机序列延误的影响进行分析提供了基础和便利。
英文摘要：
To better depict uncertainty of arrival time of plane at certain fixing, stochastic model of arrival and departure time of plane is built. Since it is very difficult to solve the stochastic model when implementing delay analysis,the approximation model is gained by means of approaching a random variable which is maximal of two normal random variable by some normal random one. The error analysis is implemented by simulation to test the accuracy of approximation model. It is indicated that the approximation model represented the stochastic model well. It provides convenience for researching effect of arrival time error on plane sequence delay.
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