中文摘要：

这篇论文在最近的年里在有条件的非线性的最佳的不安的申请考察进步到空气和海洋的指向的观察研究，与 El Ni 的一个焦点 ?o 南部的摆动(ENSO ) ，自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流路径变化，和堵住的事件。通过学习最佳的先锋(OPR ) 并且最佳地种上述事件的出现的起始的错误(OGE ) ，类似和本地化 OPR 和 OGE 空间结构展示各被作出对有利的裁决事件。理想的 hindcasting 实验看了那起始的错误是否为 ENSO 和自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流路径变化为 OPR 和 OGE 与最大的振幅在区域被减少，为这些事件的模型的预报技巧显著地被改进。由于 OPR 和 OGE 的模式的类似，在一样的敏感区域实现的另外的观察将帮助不仅捕获先锋，而且在预言减少起始的错误，极大地增加预报能力。OPR 和 OGE 的空间结构的类似和本地化也在堵住事件的发作期间被调查了，但是他们到指向的观察的申请要求进一步的学习。

英文摘要：

This paper reviews progress in the application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to targeted observation studies of the atmosphere and ocean in recent years, with a focus on the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, Kuroshio path variations, and blocking events. Through studying the optimal precursor （OPR） and optimally growing initial error （OGE） of the occurrence of the above events, the similarity and localization features of OPR and OGE spatial structures have been found for each event. Ideal hindcasting experiments have shown that, if initial errors are reduced in the areas with the largest amplitude for the OPR and OGE for ENSO and Kuroshio path variations, the forecast skill of the model for these events is significantly improved. Due to the similarity between patterns of the OPR and OGE, additional observations implemented in the same sensitive region would help to not only capture the precursors, but also reduce the initial errors in the predictions, greatly increasing the forecast abilities. The similarity and localization of the spatial structures of the OPR and OGE during the onset of blocking events have also been investigated, but their application to targeted observation requires further study.