西部大开发是中国在改革开放后实施时间最长、影响范围最广的一项区域发展战略。客观评价其实施效果,不仅对于其本身的实施和完善具有重要意义,而且能够对其他区域发展战略产生借鉴作用。本文首次采用1994—2012年中国283个地级市面板数据,利用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)研究了西部大开发对地区经济发展的影响。本文发现,西部大开发并未有效推动西部地区GDP及其人均GDP的快速增长。西部大开发过程中存在着“政策陷阱”,在既有体制激励下,中央政府和地方政府都过度集中于固定资产投资和资源能源开发,却忽视了体制改革和软环境建设,造成人力资本挤出、产业结构调整滞后等不良后果,导致西部大开发的政策效应没有得到有效发挥。因此,未来西部大开发政策完善的重点在于加强软环境建设,重视人力资本积累,主动降低经济增长对资源开发的依赖度,为西部地区经济增长创造新的驱动力。
Western development (WD) is a regional development strategy of the longest duration and the widest impact in China since the reform and opening. Evaluating its effectiveness is not only of great significance for the implementation and improvement of its own, but also of great reference value to other regional development strategies. Based on the panel data of 283 cities for the period of 1994--2012 in China and the difference in differences-propensity score matching (PSM-DID) approach, this paper overcomes the drawbacks of existing researches, our research discovered that WD has not effectively promoted the growth of the western region's GDP and per capita GDP. Instead, WD suffers from the "policy trap"--both the central and local governments excessively focused on fixed assets investment and resources exploration under the existing incentives, but ignored the-positive reform and construction of soft environment, resulting in negative effects such as loss of human resources, hysteresis of industrial structure adjustment and so on. Therefore, WD should strengthen its efforts on the soft environment, human resource while reducing its dependence on resources in the future, in order to create new driving forces for the economic growth in the western region.