中文摘要：

利用CRU（Climatic Research Unit）高分辨率观测数据及云南省124站资料，检验了参与IPCC AR5（政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次评估报告）的7个全球海气耦合模式（Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5， CMIP5）及模式集合平均对云南及周边地区气温和降水的模拟性能，同时进行该区域不同温室气体排放量情景下2006～2055年的气候预估。结果表明：全球海气耦合模式对该区域气温和降水气候场空间分布、气温的线性趋势和春、夏季降水的年代际振荡特征具有一定的模拟能力，且模式集合能力优于单一模式，气温模拟优于降水模拟，但春、夏季的降水好于其他季节，使得全年的总降水好于秋、冬两季。对未来情景预估表明，研究区域未来50年气温呈现显著的线性上升趋势，降水量保持年代际振荡特征并有所增加，2020年之前我国云南及其南部区域将经历相对的干旱时期。

英文摘要：

Based on high-resolution CRU （Climatic Research Unit） data and observations at 124 stations in Yunnan Province, the performance of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models （Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5, CMIP5） from the IPCC AR5 （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report） in simulating the climatology over Yunnan Province and the surrounding regions was evaluated. The projected change in climate over these regions under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 2006-2055 was also studied. Results show that global coupled ocean-atmosphere models can simulate the spatial structure of temperature and precipitation climatology, the linear temperature rising trend, and the decadal oscillation characteristics of spring and summer precipitation. The multi-model ensemble （MME） shows better skill than the single model, and the temperature simulation results are better than the precipitation results. Spring and summer precipitation results are superior to those in other seasons, making the total annual mean precipitation simulation results better than those for autumn and winter. Future scenario projections indicate that the temperature over the study regions will show a significant linear rising trend. Precipitation will maintain its decadal oscillation characteristics, and increase over the next 50 years. A few regions, including Yunnan Province and its southern regions, will undergo a drought period before 2020.