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中文摘要：
汉江流域是南水北调中线工程的水源地，应用Mann-Kendall非线性检验方法，分析了汉江流域干流和各子流域1951-2003年春、夏、秋、冬径流的长期变化趋势。分析发现1991年是汉江流域年径流量趋势变化的突变点，从20世纪80年代的丰水期进入90年代的枯水期；在显著性水平α=0．05上，春季和冬季汉江流域许多子流域径流量长期变化趋势呈下降趋势。分析结果将为南水北调中线工程水资源配置决策提供科学依据。
英文摘要：
Hanjiang Basin is the water source of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）. The temporal and spatial trends of the seasonal runoff were detected by the Mann-Kendall test method in this Basin from 1951 to 2003. There was a climate jump in 1991 in Hanjiang Basin when the runoff changed from the wet period in 1980s to the dry period in 1990s. The results indicated that at α=0.05 significance level there were descending trends for the runoff in many parts of Hanjiang Basin in the Spring and Winter. The results will provide the rational references for water resources allocation decision of the SNWDP.
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Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability an
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