人民币在国际范围内的使用率不断提高,人民币国际化的进程将由从结算货币到投资货币再到储备货币逐步升级,其中人民币贸易国际化程度将成为人民币国际化水平的风向标。通过对人民币贸易国际化程度的测度和以VAR模型为基础进行的各因素对人民币贸易国际化影响作用的分析发现,人民币的国际化程度在贸易领域内有着较为明显的提高。其中,工业增加值对人民币贸易国际化有着持久的正面影响;贸易竞争优势短期内对人民币贸易国际化造成显著的不利影响,长期内负面影响有所减弱;汇率对人民币贸易国际化的影响效果最大,人民币贬值使人民币贸易国际化程度大幅降低;外汇储备能促进人民币贸易国际化的发展。
With the usage of RMB has increased, RMB internationalization is developed from settlement curren- cy to investment currency to reserve currency. The degree of RMB trade internationalization will become weather vane of the level of RMB internationalization. Based on measuring the degree of RMB trade internationalization, and explores the effects of several relative factors through VAR model,it find that the degree of RMB trade interna- tionalization has increased. The added value remains persistent positive influence on RMB trade internationalization; trade Competitive Index has strong negative effect in short -term, while the negative effect will reduce in long - term; the effect of exchange rate is the largest, RMB depreciation results in decrease of trade internationalization; foreign reserve also could promote the development of RMB trade internationalization