中文摘要：

保险体系会引发系统性风险吗？本文从国际保险业发展的现实状况和未来发展趋势出发，通过分析保险行业的系统重要性和保险公司主要业务活动的系统风险相关性，从宏观层面和微观层面两个角度，判断保险体系引发系统性风险的可能性。我们发现，总体上当前保险业引发系统性风险的可能性不大；但随着保险公司业务创新的进一步推进，保险业引发系统性风险的可能性在逐渐增加，其中保险公司的短期融资和表外衍生品交易业务，是引发系统性风险可能性较大的业务。我们还对中国保险业系统性风险的宏观审慎监管提出了政策建议。

英文摘要：

Does insurance system pose systemic risk？ Based on the present situation and the future development trends of international insurance industry, this paper analyzed the systematical importance of the insurance industry and systematical relativity of mainstream insurance business, and assessed the possibility of insurance system posing systematic risks from macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. We found out that, though the possibility that insurance system caused systematic risk was slim currently, the possibility was increasing gradually with further business innovation of insurers. The insurers＇ non-core business, such as short-term funding and off- balance sheet derivative transactions had considerable possibility to pose systematic risks. Finally, we proposed some suggestions about the macro-prudent supervision on systematic risks in the Chinese insurance industry.