中文摘要：

为了准确评估飞机的实际导航性能，确保飞行安全，研究了基于性能导航运行方式下的机载综合导航系统的位置误差二维正态分布特性，建立了ANP评估中飞机估计位置的误差模型，推导了其概率误差圆的数值积分，并提出了一种基于导航误差数值积分的机载综合导航系统ANP实时评估算法。以大型客机的典型综合导航方式为例，对评估算法进行了仿真验证。仿真结果表明：ANP值能有效达到95％的误差估算精度，算法能可靠地评估组合导航系统的实时误差特性，具有较高的实际导航性能评估精度，是一种切实有效的方法。

英文摘要：

In order to accurately estimate the actual navigation performance（ANP） of plane and ensure the safety of flight, the two-dimensional normal distribution characteristic of position error for onboard integrated navigation system was studied based on the operation mode of performance based navigation （PBN）. An error model of plane＇s estimated position in the estimation of ANP was established. The numerical integration of the probability of error circle was derived. An ANP real-time estimation algorithm of onboard integrated navigation system was proposed based on the numerical integration of navigation error. Then a simulation of the estimation algorithm was carried out based on a typical integrated navigation mode of an airliner. Simulation result indicates that the ANP value can effectively make the accuracy of error estimation reach 95~. The algorithm can estimate the real-time error characteristics of integrated navigation system authentically, has high ANP assessment precision for actual navigation performance, and is a kind of effective method. 2 tabs, 9 figs, 16 refs.