中文摘要：

人类社会已经步人“风险社会”时期。为了保障国家、地区及行业的健康发展，国内外许多行业已应用风险管理这一新视角来研究传统的安全及灾害管理问题。旅游地风险是我国旅游业发展的重要障碍性因素，也是近年来国内旅游学研究的重点领域之一。在深入考虑风险评估复杂性和不确定性的基础上，借助于灰色系统理论和风险评估理论，建立了经过层次分析法（AHP）修整后的旅游地安全风险灰色关联评估模式，并以国内10条重点探险旅游线路为例进行了实证研究。结果表明，10条探险旅游线路中雅鲁藏布大峡谷探险的旅游风险最高，泸沽湖女儿国探险线路最小。其他8条旅游线路安全风险的大小，按降位排序为：高黎贡山一怒江探险线路、楼兰古国一罗布泊丝路探险线路、秦岭探险线路、茶马古道探险线路、两江源头科考探险线路、塔克拉玛干沙漠探险线路、三峡徒步线路、大海道穿越线路。

英文摘要：

Human-being have been in the risk society. It is a newly angle and tendency to analyze the. combined with the characteristics of complexity and uncertainly of risk. Based on Grey Theory , considered the illegibility of subjective judgment , the modified grey relation analyzed model was brought forward to establish the mode of the e- valuation of tourism risk. Using this mode , ten famous adventure tourism line risk was evaluated, the results shows that the Brahmaputra River is the most danger tourism line , Then elploiting the Gaoligong Mountain-Nujiang River, Loulan country-luobu river silk road , Qinling exploiting tourism line ,Tea-horse road , the headstream adventure of Yangtze Rive and Huanghe river ,walking along with Three gorges Yangtze River, going aross the Dahai Avenue. but the Lugu lake is the most safety in the ten tourism line.