中文摘要：

Taoer 河的上面、中间的活动范围，一个代表性的生态地敏感的区域，自从 1961，经历了大气候变化和快速的农业、工业的开发。因此有迫切需要在溪流流动上评估气候变化和人的活动的影响更好在这个区域服务水资源管理。nonparametric Mann-Kendall 测试和动人的 t 测试被用来在溪流流动，降水和潜在的土壤水分蒸发蒸腾损失总量数据系列识别趋势和变化点。一个重要向上的趋势在年度流流动被发现了，与在是控制全部学习区域的车站的 Taonan 车站在 1985 识别的一个突然的变化。溪流流动数据被划分成一个基线时期和变化的一个时期。Fu 和张鈥檚 函数被采用在吝啬的年度流流动上在气候和人的活动评估变化的影响，基于降水和潜在的蒸发。在基线和变化的时期之间的吝啬的年度溪流流动的增加的分析显示那个气候变化占了大约 45% 全部的增加，人的活动为大约 55% 负责。

英文摘要：

The upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, a representative ecologically sensitive area, has experienced great climate change and rapid agricultural and industrial development since 1961. There is therefore an urgent need to evaluate the impact of climate change and human activities on stream flows to serve better the water resource management in this region. The nonparamet- ric Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test were used to identify trends and change points in stream flow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data series. A significant upward trend has been found in annual stream flow, with an abrupt change identified in 1985 at the Taonan station which is the station that controls the entire study area. The stream flow data was divided into a baseline period and a period of change. Both Fu and Zhang＇s functions were employed to evaluate the impacts of variation in climate and human activities on mean annual stream flow, based on precipitation and potential evaporation. Analysis of the increase in mean annual stream flow between the baseline and the period of change indicated that climate change accounted for about 45% of the total increase and human activities were responsible for about 55%.