中文摘要：

基于我国高速铁路地震预警采用沿线路排列的原位地震监测网络所必需的单台站预警模式,研究提出适合高速铁路单台站的快速、准确进行高铁线路场地地震动预测的方法。选择3s初始P波的谱强度、位移幅值和速度平方积分作为预测地震动的特征参数,应用2008年汶川Ms8.0级地震的余震记录,建立这3个特征参数与待预测的3个地震动参数（峰值加速度、峰值速度和谱强度）之间的拟合关系,进而推导得到3个地震动参数的预测公式。对比结果表明,基于3s初始P波的谱强度预测地震动峰值加速度的方法更适合于我国高速铁路线路场地的地震预警。针对汶川地震这样主震级别大的地震,通过在地震动参数预测公式中引入放大系数,对特征参数进行提前修正,从而对大地震的后续地震动也能够快速、准确地预测,缓解了预测大震级地震动时出现的＂低估现象＂。

英文摘要：

Based on the mode of earthquake early warning（EEW）for high speed railway using single station required by the in situ seismic monitoring network along railway line in China,we proposed a fast and accurate prediction method for track ground motion in the EEW for high speed railway suitable for single station early warning.The spectral intensity,displacement amplitude and squared velocity integral of 3sinitial P wave were selected as the characteristic parameters for predicting ground motion.The aftershock records of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 were used to establish the fitting relationships among these three characteristic parameters and three ground motion parameters to be predicted（peak acceleration,peak velocity and spectral intensity）,and then the prediction formulas for three ground motion parameters were derived.Comparison results show that the proposed method for predicting the peak acceleration of ground motion based on the spectral intensity of 3sinitial P wave is more suitable for predicting the track ground motion in EEW of high speed railway in China.Aiming at large magnitude earthquakes,i.e.the Wenchuan main shock,an amplification coefficient is introduced into the prediction formula of ground motion parameters to revise the characteristic parameters in advance.Accordingly,the fast and accurate prediction for the subsequent ground motion of large earthquake can be achieved and the phenomenon of ＂underestimation＂in predicting the ground motion of large magnitude earthquake is alleviated.