中文摘要：

在山西河南西部地区共测了142个黄土自然极限状态高边坡的剖面，将研究区分成3个亚区，分亚区采用双对数线性模型，对所测极限状态坡的坡高和坡宽进行了不同置信度下的统计分析，并将1938组工程勘察中测得的黄土物理力学指标分亚区和年代进行了统计，用Bishop法稳定系数计算公式建立极限状态方程，利用Monte-Carlo法对不同置信度下的统计边坡进行可靠度分析，获得了三个亚区5组变异系数组合下和不同稳定系数下的高边坡失效概率．结果表明该区黄土粘粒含量高，抗剪强度参数的变异性大，失效概率较高．在变异系数取平均值水平，稳定系数为1．3情况下边坡失效概率达20％，如果期望将设计边坡失效概率控制在10％以内，安全系数需提高至1．45以上．

英文摘要：

In order to analyze the reliability of loess high slopes, 142 natural limit-state slopes were measured in west Shanxi and Henan area. According to the characteristics of topography ,water system and lithology, the studied region is divided into 3 subareas. The correlations of limit-state slope height and slope width are given by means of double log-line- ar regression in different confidence limit in 3 subareas respectively. Meanwhile, 1938 groups of indexes of loess physical and mechanical property were collected and statistically analyzed. Based on the above, the limit-state equation was built by means of Bishop Method and reliability analysis for the slope stability under different confidence in each subarea is car- ried out with the Monte-Carlo method. The failure probability of high slopes under 5 groups of combinations of variation coefficient and different factor of safety are given. The results show that the clay content of loess in the studied area is higher, and the variability of shear strength parameters is greater. The maximum of failure probability of loess slopes reaches 20% in the case of the average variation coefficient as well as the factor of safety in 1.3. If the failure probability is controlled within 10 %, the factor of safety should be increased to 1.45. This researching achievements are considered to be worthy of the widespread use of reliability theory in loess high slope design in west Shanxi and Henan area.