基于哈罗德-多马模型本文提出一个包含房价波动与金融支持实体经济效率的基准模型,选取2000—2015年的省际面板数据,采用Dea—Malmquist指数方法对我国金融支持实体经济效率进行测度,运用空间面板计量方法对房价波动与金融支持实体效率进行实证分析。实证结果表明:房价上涨显著降低了我国金融支持实体经济效率,房价上涨对规模效率的影响大于对纯技术效率的影响;房价波动主要是通过空间的直接效应对金融支持实体经济效率产生影响的,而通过空间的间接影响并不显著;金融支持实体经济效率具有空间溢出效应,某地区金融支持实体经济效率提升对周边地区具有显著促进作用。实证结论给我们提供了重要政策启示:政府应重视房价波动给实体经济带来的风险,应做到时房地产价格的有序调控,避免房地产价格过快上涨给金融支持实体经济效率带来的不利影响。
This paper proposes a benchmark model about house price fluctuations and the efficiency of the finance sup- porting the real economy, selects provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and uses the Dea-Malmquist index method to measure efficiency of finance supporting the real economy and the space panel econometric method to carry on the empirical analysis. The empirical results show: house prices rising significantly lowers the efficiency of finance sup- porting the real economy; the house price changes are mainly through the direct effect affecting the efficiency of finance supporting the real economy; the efficiency of finance supporting the real economy has spatial spillover effect. A regional efficiency of financial supporting the real economy has a significant impact on the surrounding areas. The conclusions provide us the important policy implications: the government should pay attention to the risks of house price fluctuation on the real economy, strengthen supervision, and avoid the negative influence of house price exces- sive rising on the real economy efficiency. Key words: House Price Fluctuation; Crowding-out Effect; Efficiency of Finance Supporting Real Economy; Dea-Malmquist Index