中文摘要：

城市轨道交通系统具有列车运行间隔小、站间距离短、车站线路布置比较简单等特点，一旦列车发生运行延误，其传播的速度快、影响范围大。本文在分析城市轨道交通列车运行延误发生的随机性特征的基础上，指出城市轨道交通列车运行延误具有直接性、快速性和双向性的特点以及基于这些特点的列车运行延误传播的两种表现形式，然后运用系统仿真的理论与方法，建立了基于列车运行图的城市轨道交通列车运行延误的仿真模型，通过设计合理的列车运行延误统计指标和仿真分析方案，以某城市轨道交通线路为背景进行仿真分析。通过仿真分析发现，列车运行延误及其传播主要与能力利用率、缓冲时间、备车数量以及辅助线数量等因素有关，并且这些参数之间应该保持一定的合理匹配关系。

英文摘要：

The Urban Mass Transit （UMT） system has the characteristics such as little intervals, short distances between stations and simple station track layouts. In case any train delays, fast and large-range propagation will occur and affect the schedules of other trains in time and space. On the basis of analysis of the random natures of train delays in the UMT system, this paper discusses the direct, rapid and double-direction characteristics and two phenomena of train delay propagation. Then this paper establishes the train delay simulation model of UMT based on the train diagram by the system simulation theory and method. Simulation analysis is made with the background of the UMT system of a city by the reasonably designed statistic indexes and simulation schemes of train delays. It is found that train delay and delay propagation are related to the capacity utilization, buffer time and number of spare vehicles and auxiliary lines and these parameters should be kept matched among one another.