以上海地区为例,从宏观、微观2个不同的层面描述了电力与经济之间的联系。采用景气指数的研究方法,通过构建上海电力景气指数对电力与经济进行宏观分析,这对电力消费与经济运行未来的变化趋势和拐点预测有较强的应用性。在宏观分析的基础之上,应用时差相关系数、单位电耗产值与多元线性回归的方法对电力消费与行业产值分别在时间、比例、影响力度等方面进行微观分析。结果表明:通过资本传递效应的经济活动,最终会在电力消费市场上有强烈的反映,故通过建立完善的电力市场价格机制,将进一步调整整体的电力消费特性,并能够提高能源利用效率。
Taking Shanghai as an example, this paper discusses the relationship between electric power and economy from both macro and micro perspectives. Using the research method for boom indexes, the macro analysis of electric power and economy is performed through building the Shanghai electric power boom index, which has strong application in forecasting the trends of electricity consumption and economic operation and finding the turning point. On the basis of the macro analysis, the micro analysis is carried out on power consumption and industry output in terms of time, proportion and influence degree using the time difference correlation coe- fficient, power consumption per unit output value method and multiple linear regression. The results show that ecomic activi- ties through the effect of capital transfer have strong reflections in the electricity market. Therefore, the power consumption characteristics of the whole power consumption can be further adjusted and the efficiency of energy utilization can be imp- roved by establishing the perfect pricing mechanism in the electricity market.