中文摘要：

高速铁路牵引供电系统极易受雷电等极端灾害天气的影响，雷击可导致牵引供电设备损坏、接触网停电、高铁停运，由此引发巨大的财产损失。本文借鉴风险评估思想，分析影响牵引供电系统雷击风险的组成因素，建立高速铁路牵引供电系统雷电灾害风险评估模型。同时，结合气象部门的雷电预警信息，实现对牵引供电系统雷击灾害的提前预警。对合蚌高铁北城牵引供电所及其供电臂的分析表明：该方法可对牵引供电系统遭受雷击损害的风险程度进行定量评估，确定具有高度雷击损害风险的系统和设备，从而为牵引供电系统的差异化防雷技术提供参考。

英文摘要：

Traction power supply systems of high-speed railways are vulnerable to lightning and other extreme weather disasters. Lightning strikes may lead to equipment damages, catenary outages and stoppage of high-speed traffic and so cause huge property losses. In this paper, on the basis of analyzing the composition factors of lightning risks, the risk assessment model was established to assess the lightning disaster risks of traction power supply systems of high-speed railways. Lightning warning information of the meteorological department was also utilized. Early warning for lightning disasters was realized. Analysis on the Beicheng Traction Substation and its feeding section of the Hefei-Bengbu High-speed Railway shows that by use of the proposed model, quantitative assessment of the degree of the risk of being struck by lightning can be obtained and systems and equipment of high-lightning risks can be identified, thus providing reference to differential lightning protection technology for traction power supply systems.