中文摘要：

对牵引变压器进行短期风险评估,可及时识别可能存在的风险及其影响,从而为采取必要措施手段降低风险,保证牵引变压器可靠运行提供有力支持。提出了一种基于负荷特性的牵引变压器短期风险评估方法。利用热路模型计算得到牵引变压器绕组热点温度,并以此为基础,从温升对牵引变压器的寿命损失和绝缘故障两方面的影响出发,采用牵引变压器寿命损失风险和绝缘故障风险2个指标来表征牵引负荷引起的风险。通过经济成本损失来衡量风险事件严重度并量化最终的风险值。算例分析验证了文中方法的有效性,结果表明牵引负荷特性对变压器实时运行风险的影响不容忽视,该评估方法可用于牵引变压器的实时风险评估以及风险预测,为现场人员及时掌握风险水平、对高风险运行状态预警提供支持。

英文摘要：

Short-term risk assessment for traction transformer can identify possible risk event and its impact in time and provide strong support for mitigating risk and guaranteeing reliable operation of transformer. A short-term risk evaluation method is presented in this paper based on loading characteristics of traction transformer. Heat circuit model is appliedto calculate hot spot temperature of transformer. Considering influence of temperature rise on transformer life loss and dielectric failure, two risk indices, life loss risk and dielectric failure risk, are adopted to represent risk resulted from loading characteristics. Severity of risk event is evaluated by means of economic loss and economic cost is utilized to quantify comprehensive risk value. Case study proves validity of the method. It shows that loading characteristics of traction transformer have significant influence on operational risk of transformer. The proposed method can be applied in real-time risk evaluation and risk prediction of traction transformer. It enables operators to have access to risk condition in real time and be aware of high-risk event to avoid failure.