文章主要结论有:(1)中国创新驱动发展现状并不乐观,在样本区间全要素生产率和技术进步年均增长率都为负值;(2)中国产业发展体系本身具有以经济增长和产业结构变迁的协同互动为主题的自我演化特征;(3)创新驱动与产业发展体系在长短期的相互作用有别,这一作用在不同检验方法下具有相当的稳健性;(4)在影响创新驱动的相关因素中,政府干预倾向和非市场化程度交互项的显著负向影响反映出利益集团式勾结的破坏性作用。
Applying ECM and panel-VAR,this paper reconciles current debate about the mechanism of growth in China.Main conclusions include:(1)The situation of innovationdriven development strategy is still far from optimistic in China,because average annual growth rate of TFP,and technical progress are negative during the sample interval.(2)The development of industry system in China exhibits a pattern between economic growth and structural change that could be characterized as interdependence and coevolution.(3)Innovation-driven development strategy and modern industry system have a significant effect on each other,but the directions are intricate,especially when long-term effects and short-term effects are taken into account.(4)Of all the factors that would have impacts on innovationdriven development strategy,interaction term between intervention tendency of government and degree of non-marketization plays a negative part significantly,which might drop a hint that the existence of corny capitalism would have been hindering the growth in China.