中文摘要：

不确定性是自然现象中普遍存在的，在水环境中不确定性因素众多，也使得不确定性研究逐渐成为水环境模型研究的热点之一。对不确定性在水环境模型研究中的产生与发展进行了总结，介绍了水环境模型中常用的不确定性研究方法及其特点，并结合国内外的水环境模型，对其不确定性研究的发展趋势进行了展望。

英文摘要：

Being uncertain is ubiquitous in the nature, and many uncertain factors can be seen in the water environment which makes re- search on the uncertainty become one of the hottest topics of the water environmental modeling. This paper summarizes the emergence and development of the uncertainty in the water environment modeling, and introduces the analytic methods of uncertainty in the water environment model and their characteristics, and the prospect has been predicted in the development trend of the research on the uncer- tainty in the water environment modeling in China and aboard.