中文摘要：

作者在对60多年来,尤其是近30年生产安全事故数据统计分析基础上,探讨了我国生产安全事故演变规律并对包括＂十二五＂期间在内的近中期发展趋势做了初步预测。作者认为虽然2010年上半年重大事故发生频率较高,但仍在＂正常＂波动范围内,生产安全事故总体风险继续保持下降态势。应用时间动态序列方法对2010-2020年生产事故死亡人数、职工十万人死亡率和特大事故发生频度3项指标做了预测分析,结果显示：死亡人数量总体仍呈波动下降,虽然＂十二五＂期间内可能出现小幅波动,但超出2003年峰值可能性较小,2015年后则可能明显持续下降;职工十万人死亡率十年内继续保持稳定下降,出现较大波动的可能性很小;2010年可能成为近几年特大事故发生频度较高年份,2011年内会有所下降,此后5-10年之内还有再次出现反复风险,但总体保持在8起以下,峰值超出2005年几率很小,特大事故间隔天数的曲线拟合回归分析显示,近中期重特大事故在某一时段频度集中发生的几率仍然较高,对此应保持警惕。作者认为,应急准备欠缺,救援能力不足和应急管理系统存在明显脆弱性是重特大事故频发与伤亡后果严重主要原因之一。安全生产政策干预时效分析表明：近年来,政策时效干预度持续加强是安全生产形势逐渐稳定好转基本原因之一,但格兰杰因果检验结果提示重特大事故频度变化是政策时效干预力度增减的格兰杰原因,即表现为被动性干预,明显缺乏前瞻性和计划性。作者建议,我国安全生产宏观管理应逐步实现由被动的事故推动型向主动的目标拉动型的战略性转变。

英文摘要：

On the basis of the statistical analysis of the data indicating the safety accidents in the recent 60 years,in particular the recent 30 years,the author discusses the safety accident evolution rules of China,and makes a preliminary forecast of the development tendency in the recent and medium term,including the 12th five-year period.In the opinion of the author,though the first half year of 2010 saw the frequent occurrence of the significant and serious accidents,it is within the ＂normal＂ fluctuation scope still and the overall risk of the safety production accidents will continue following the downward trend.The author uses the time dynamic series method to make a forecast analysis of three indexes during 2010-2020,including the safety accident death toll,the mortality every 100,000 staffs,and serious accident occurrence frequency,and the result shows that the death toll fluctuates and decreases as a whole.Though the figure might fluctuate by a small range during the 12th five-year period,there is little possibility that it will exceed the peak value in 2003 and the figure will probably show sustained decrease after 2015;the mortality every 100,000 staffs will continue to show steady decrease within the forthcoming 10 years and there is little possibility of relatively large fluctuation;2010 might become the frequent accident occurrence year of the recent few years and the accident occurrence frequency will drop within 2011.There is the risk of repeated occurrence in the forthcoming 5-10 years,but the total accident number will be below 8,and the probability that the accident peak value will exceed that in 2005 is little.According to the curve fitting and regression analysis of the serious accident interval of days,the probability of centralized accident occurrence within certain time frequency is high still,and high attention shall be paid to it.In the opinion of the author,preparation for emergency is weak,and deficient rescue capability and obvious vulnerability with the emergency management system might