中文摘要：

研究目的：探讨城乡建设用地增减挂钩潜力测算的技术路线和方法。研究方法：基于土地利用总体规划的挂钩潜力测算方法。研究结果：按照本文提出的测算方法和技术路线，对天津市城乡建设用地增减挂钩的潜力进行了实证分析，到规划目标年，天津市挂钩潜力系数为1．25，挂钩潜力余额为4936．60hm2，这说明通过挂钩，天津市可以满足规划目标年新增城镇建设用地占用耕地的需求。研究结论：建立基于土地利用总体规划的挂钩潜力测算方法和技术路线，其测算结果能够较好的反映地区实际，与土地用途管制紧密结合，为各地区申请挂钩试点、分配挂钩指标、开展挂钩项目提供数据参考，为土地整治规划的编制奠定基础，为国土资源管理部门制定、创新挂钩政策提供定量信息和参考依据。

英文摘要：

The purpose of this paper is to probe into the technical route and methods to estimate the potential capacity of the Linkage between Urban-land Taking and Rural-land Giving （LUTRG）. Research method is quantitative analysis. Results show that the potential capacity of LUTRG in Tianjin is estimated based on the developed model. The LUTRG potential coefficient is 1.25 and the LUTRG potential balance is 4936.60 hm2 in the planned goal years. This means that Tianjin can meet the demand of new construction land within the round of the planned period through implementing LUTRG. It is concluded that the methods developed in the paper on estimating the LUTRG potential can reflect the actual area, and thus can serve as the basis for land consolidation planning and the references for the LUTRG policy reform and innovation.