本文从用地-产出的角度研究土地利用结构与产业发展关系。综合前人研究,结合海南土地利用现状,构建一个基于产业的土地利用分类。采用1995年—2006年海南省的时间序列数据及其18个市县的面板数据,以数量经济模型为分析工具,利用线性回归模型、混合回归模型和个体效应模型,F统计量和H统计量进行统计检验等方法研究土地利用结构和产业发展之间的关系。研究结论为:①产业结构的变化影响产业用地结构,而且产业结构的变化快于产业用地结构的变化;②产业用地结构由产业规模与产业耗地技术水平以及自然环境约束共同决定。研究最后指出,产业生产技术水平及其耗地技术水平的提高是实现产业结构和土地利用结构双优化,推动经济发展的重要手段,同时区域自身的环境因素影响也应受到重视。
The land use structure is defined as the space mapping from the industrial structure to land resources. In most cases, changes in the industrial structure would bring changes in land use structure. The purpose of the study was to reveal the inherent rule between them, which would be greatly helpful to coordinate the relationship between the land use and economic development. Based on previous research results and current states of land use in Hainan Province, in the present work, the author proposed a new land use classification on the basis of the industry. Then Data describing recent states of land use in Hainan during the period 1995-2006 from the old classification system were transformed into the proposed new classification system. It was found that both GDP and the gross land showed a continued and significant increase, but the increasing degree varied with different industries. Furthermore, the relationship between the land and the product was investigated by empirical analysis. First, the authors used the Granger causality test to examine the causality between GDP and the gross land, and subsequently used the linear regression model to describe the relationship based on time series data. Second, the mixed regression model, the fixed effect model and the random effect model were jointly adopted to quantify the relationship between each industry and its land. By the F-Test and H-Test, the authors selected the final models. It was indicated that the fixed effect model could describe the relationship between the primary industry and its land, the random effect model could describe the relationship between the secondary industry and its land, and the random effect model could describe the relationship between the tertiary industry and its land. At last, the authors made use of the structure variation ratio and the deviation coefficient to figure out the relationship between the industry structure and the land use structure. Conclusions were drawn as follows. First, variations in industry structure could result