非工作活动及其派生的出行需求,是交通需求管理和控制工作关注的焦点.本文通过居民出行调查数据分析,以家庭为分析单位,从活动的生成和分配两个方面描述了非工作活动在家庭层面的安排模式,从出行链的角度分析了非工作活动与工作活动和出行的相互关系.系统由两个模型组成,首先用二项Logit模型分析非工作活动的参与选择,然后用fractional multinomial Logit模型分析了非工作活动在不同结构出行链中的分配情况.结果显示,私人交通工具的拥有、靠近市中心的居住位置和家庭收入的增加都会刺激家庭非工作活动的需求.而随着非工作活动需求的增加,复杂出行链成为家庭组织非工作活动的主要模式.研究结果对出行需求预测和管理工作有重要指导意义.
Non-work activity and descendable trip demand is the key point of the trip demand management.Based on the resident trip survey data,the paper describes the generation and organization of non-work activity at the household level.The relationships between non-work activity and work activity,and non-work activity and travel are analyzed.The analysis involves two models: a binary Logit model of the propensity for households to participate in non-work activities is first estimated.And the fractional multinomial Logit model is used to analyze household's allocation for non-work activity.Empirical results indicate that families with private cars,living around the city center and with high incomes have relatively high propensity to participate in non-work activities.With the increase of household non-work activities,the complex trip chains are the principle mode of non-work activity.