基于1998—2007年中国工业企业数据,本文利用生存分析法中多个加速失效时间模型(AFT model)估计了所有权结构对国有企业生存能力的影响。我们发现:相对于产权多元化的国有企业而言,国有独资企业拥有较强的生存能力;而且这一现象在地方国有企业样本中要比在中央企业样本中更为显著,这主要是由于地方政府对于国有独资产权形式更为偏爱造成的。这预示着深化混合所有制改革的重点应该放在地方国有企业上,而合理解决地方政府与地方国有企业之间的关系是确保国有企业改革最终成功的关键所在。
Based on China' s industrial enterprise data from 1998 to 2007, this paper estimates the effect of ownership structure on the survival ability of state - owned enterprises (SOEs) by using accelerated failure time (AFT) models. We found that wholly SOEs have lower exit possibilities and this phenomenon is more significant in the local SOEs samples because the local government' s preference to wholly SOEs. And then it may be clear that the following reform should focus on the local SOEs, and the key to ensure the success of the reform is how to balance the relationship between the local govemments and local SOEs.