中文摘要：

为了有效地利用飞行器气动参数估计结果,必须同时给出估计结果的不确定度,因此研究了不确定度评价方法.当试验样本较多时,样本标准差具有明确的统计含义,比分散度能够更好地描述参数估计的不确定度.对于单个试验样本,基于不确定度椭球导出的C-R（Cramer-Rao）界是参数估计不确定度最好的理论预测,但利用飞行实测数据得到的C-R界普遍比样本标准差小.鉴于此,通过在低频有色噪声的基础上构造白噪声的方法,得到了一种C-R界修正方法,并通过仿真算例验证了修正方法的正确性.最后,将C-R界修正方法应用于飞行实测数据,得到的修正C-R界与利用多次飞行试验参数估计结果计算的样本标准差比较一致,表明该修正方法能够较好地给出参数估计的不确定度区间.

英文摘要：

In order to make effective use of aerodynamic parameter vide at the same time an aerodynamic parameter uncertainty interva estimation results for an aircraft, it is necessary to pro- , for which the uncertainty evaluation methods are stud- led in this paper. If test runs are sufficient in number, the sample standard deviation has a clear statistical significance. Therefore it is a good criterion for uncertainty evaluation. The C-R （Cramer-Rao） bound based on the uncertainty ellipsoid is the best theoretical prediction of uncertainty for a single flight test, but C-R bound is different from the sample standard devi- ation due to colored residuals. A correction method by constructing the Gauss noises based on colored noises is proposed, and the accuracy of the corrected C-R bound is validated through comparing it the with sample standard deviation. Finally the correction method of C-R bound is applied to flight test data, and the corrected C-R bound is found to be close to the sample standard deviation, which demonstrates that the uncertainty evaluation method is valid.