把耕地质量划分为耕地本底质量和耕地追加质量,通过剖析农业生产物质的大量投入对粮食单产所产生的影响来探讨耕地追加质量对粮食生产的影响。通过引入“耕地标准系数”反映浙江省耕地综合质量的动态变化,并构建C-D函数模型,运用偏估计的岭回归分析,从贡献率方面就耕地追加质量中各投入因素对粮食单产进行分析。结果表明,1991-2011年间,耕地标准系数总体呈现下降趋势,意味着耕地质量有所降低。在耕地追加质量的诸多投入因素中,单位播种面积农业机械总动力、单位播种面积化肥施用量、有效灌溉率和单位播种面积地膜使用量对粮食单产的提高都有正向作用,其弹性系数集中在0.25左右,说明在其他3个因素不变的情况下,另一因素增加1%,都会促使粮食单产提高0.25%左右。最后提出提高粮食单产的耕地质量中各投入因素的对策建议。
Quality of cultivated land is divided into background and extra type. The influence of extra type on grain production is considered by analyzing the effect of agricultural production materials increase on grain yield per unit area. The "cultivated land standard coefficient" is introduced to explain the cultivated land comprehensive quality dynamic changes in Zhejiang Province, and the C-D function model and ridge regression are established to analyze each factor' s effect on grain yield from the aspect of elasticity in the process of quality improvement. The results show that: (1) generally, cultivated land standard coefficient shows the downtrend, it means that the culti- vated land quality depressed from 1991 to 2011; (2) Among the factors which as input to improve cultivated land quality, total power of agricultural machinery, fertilizer and plastic film application used on per unit grain seeding area and efficient irrigation rate show significantly positive relationships to grain yield per unit area. The elastic co- efficients of four factors are about 0.25, which mean grain yield per unit area could increase 0.25% when only one factor increased I% by fixing the other factors. According to the analysis, some suggests are put forward finally.